About the Platform
CheckRada is Africa's first prediction market and crowd intelligence platform, built in Kenya. It allows users to forecast the outcomes of real-world events — political, economic, social and environmental — and earn Kenyan Shillings via M-Pesa when their forecasts are correct.
Every forecast contributes to Kenya's National Sentiment Index, a real-time data feed that tracks collective public conviction on events that matter. Unlike polls or surveys, every signal is backed by real money — making it a high-fidelity measure of what Kenyans actually believe will happen.
Is CheckRada the first prediction market in Africa?
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Yes. CheckRada launched in 2026 as Africa's first incentivised forecasting platform using real-money stakes via M-Pesa. It is also Kenya's first crowd intelligence platform and the first skin-in-the-game sentiment data feed on the continent.
No. CheckRada is an incentivised forecasting and data platform, not a gambling or sports betting service. Our markets are built on verifiable real-world outcomes — like economic indicators and policy shifts — that require research and logic. We do not offer sports markets or games of chance.
What is the National Sentiment Index?
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The National Sentiment Index is CheckRada's proprietary real-time data feed. It aggregates the collective conviction of thousands of Kenyan participants to generate high-fidelity probability signals on economic, political and social events.
Unlike traditional polls, every signal is backed by "skin-in-the-game" — making it Africa's most accurate measure of public expectation. Banks, NGOs and research institutions can access this data via the CheckRada Data API.
How It Works
How does CheckRada work?
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A market is a YES/NO question about a verifiable real-world event. You stake KES via M-Pesa on YES or NO. The live probability shifts based on how much the crowd stakes on each side — the more money staked on YES, the higher the YES probability.
When the event resolves, correct forecasters share the pool based on their stake size and the probability at the time they placed their forecast. Forecasting early — when uncertainty is high — yields a higher return than forecasting late when the outcome is already likely. This rewards genuine insight over crowd-following.
A 5% platform fee applies to every position regardless of outcome.
If your forecast is incorrect, your stake is distributed to those who forecasted correctly. CheckRada is a market of skill and insight — we encourage all users to research the question thoroughly before staking.
The 5% platform fee also applies regardless of outcome, so this is deducted from your stake before any payout calculation.
What happens if a question is cancelled?
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If a question is cancelled due to indefinite postponement or an unverifiable outcome, 100% of all stakes are refunded directly to your CheckRada wallet. No fees are deducted from cancelled questions.
Money & M-Pesa
How does M-Pesa forecasting work?
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You deposit KES into your CheckRada wallet via M-Pesa STK Push — your phone receives a prompt to confirm payment. Your wallet balance is used to stake on markets. When you win, payouts are credited to your wallet automatically.
Withdrawals are processed instantly to your registered M-Pesa number, subject to Safaricom M-Pesa service availability. No delays, no paperwork.
Minimum deposit:
KES 20 · Minimum withdrawal:
KES 50
How do I know CheckRada is safe with my money?
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Your CheckRada wallet balance is yours at all times. You can withdraw to your registered M-Pesa number at any time — no lock-in periods, no hidden conditions. All transactions are processed through Safaricom's M-Pesa infrastructure.
CheckRada does not have access to your M-Pesa PIN or M-Pesa account directly. Payments are initiated via STK Push which you must confirm on your own device.
Resolution & Fairness
Who resolves the markets?
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The CheckRada Integrity Team resolves public markets using official, verifiable data from sources such as CBK bulletins, EPRA announcements, KNBS reports and official government portals. Official government and regulatory sources always take precedence over media reports in the event of conflicting information.
For peer-to-peer Social Challenges, a nominated Referee approves the outcome, backed by a 48-hour dispute window to ensure total fairness.
Tie outcomes: In the rare event of a split outcome requiring Platform intervention, the pool is distributed equally among all participants after a 15% administrative fee. Mutual agreements between challengers reached before Platform intervention carry the standard 5% fee — so agreeing early is always in both parties' interest.
Market Creators
How do I earn as a Market Creator?
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Propose a YES/NO question on the Creator Hub, get it approved by the CheckRada team, and share your unique market link. You earn 0.5% of every trade placed on your market, credited automatically to your CheckRada wallet while the market is active.
The more your market gets shared and traded, the more you earn — with no additional effort after approval.
Stakes & Limits
What is the minimum stake?
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To keep the platform accessible to everyone, the minimum stake is KES 20 for public questions and Social Challenges. The maximum stake is capped at KES 20,000 per Social Challenge.