◎ B2B Intelligence Feed · Real-Time

Kenya's Predictive Sentiment Signal.
Actionable Intelligence. Ahead of the Curve.

CheckRada delivers real-time crowd intelligence by aggregating high-stakes forecasts from thousands of Kenyan market participants. When our sentiment data shifts toward an 85% probability on a policy or economic outcome, it provides a "Lead Signal" — offering banks, financial institutions, NGOs and interested individuals critical insights hours before the official headlines. Mitigate risk and anticipate market volatility with the only Skin-in-the-Game data feed in Africa.

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What is the CheckRada Sentiment Index?

Every forecast on CheckRada is a real-money data point. Unlike polls (which people answer lazily), our forecasters have skin in the game. The aggregate probability is a statistically calibrated signal of crowd belief — not opinion, but conviction.

⚡

Why the Data is Valuable

In a 2025 case study, our market moved from 40% to 85% YES on a CBK rate cut 3.5 hours before the official announcement. For a trader, fund manager, or policy analyst — that's an information edge measured in millions.

Accuracy Report · Resolved Markets

Prediction Accuracy Report

Calibration, lead time, and Brier scores for all resolved markets

Market	Category	Final Prob	Outcome	Lead Time	Brier Score	Forecasters

Data API — Institutional Access

Lite

Public sentiment snapshot

💬 Pricing on inquiry

✓ Current YES/NO probabilities for all public markets
✓ Daily snapshot (24h delay)
✓ Limited API calls/month
✗ Real-time feed
✗ Brier scores & calibration data
✗ Historical data export
✗ Demographic breakdowns

Pro

Real-time institutional feed

💬 Pricing on inquiry

✓ Real-time probability updates (sub-60s latency)
✓ Brier scores + calibration metrics
✓ Full historical data (24 months)
✓ High-volume API calls/month
✓ Probability trend charts (webhook push)
✓ Volume & trader depth data
✗ Demographic breakdowns

Enterprise

Fund managers & research institutions

💬 Pricing on inquiry

✓ Everything in Pro, plus:
✓ Regional demographic breakdowns (county-level)
✓ Custom markets on request
✓ Whitelabelled sentiment reports
✓ Dedicated data analyst support
✓ Unlimited API calls
✓ SLA with 99.9% uptime guarantee

API Quick Start

JavaScript
Python
cURL

// CheckRada Sentiment API — Real-time probability feed

const getProbability = async (marketId) => {
  const response = await fetch(
    `https://api.checkrada.co.ke/v1/markets/${marketId}/probability`,
    {
      headers: {
        'Authorization': `Bearer YOUR_API_KEY`,
        'Content-Type': 'application/json'
      }
    }
  );

  const data = await response.json();
  // Returns: { yes_probability: 0.72, no_probability: 0.28,
  //   brier_score: 0.14, lead_time_hours: 3.5,
  //   total_volume_kes: 612000, unique_forecasters: 441 }

  console.log(`YES: ${data.yes_probability * 100}%`);
  return data;
};

// Subscribe to real-time updates via WebSocket
const ws = new WebSocket(
  'wss://api.checkrada.co.ke/v1/stream?token=YOUR_API_KEY'
);
ws.onmessage = (e) => {
  const { market_id, yes_prob, timestamp } = JSON.parse(e.data);
  // Handle re
  
er:0.21 },
];

const RESOLVED = [
  { q:'Will CBK hold rates at 12.5% in Jan meeting?', cat:'UCHUMI', prob:'88%', outcome:'YES', lead:'4.2h', brier:0.06, fc:318 },
  { q:'Will KES hit 140/USD by end of Q3 2024?', cat:'UCHUMI', prob:'22%', outcome:'NO', lead:'11h', brier:0.12, fc:589 },
  { q:'Will Gor Mahia win the FKF Shield Cup?', cat:'MICHEZO', prob:'61%', outcome:'YES', lead:'1.5h', brier:0.18, fc:214 },
  { q:'Will Nairobi receive rain every day in Jan?', cat:'HALI YA HEWA', prob:'34%', outcome:'NO', lead:'6.8h', brier:0.09, fc:87 },
  { q:'Will Treasury CS resign before 2025?', cat:'SIASA', prob:'15%', outcome:'NO', lead:'0h', brier:0.22, fc:445 },
  { q:'Will Super Petrol exceed KES 200 in 2024?', cat:'UCHUMI', prob:'74%', outcome:'YES', lead:'3.1h', brier:0.07, fc:671 },
];

const BRIER_COLORS = {
  good: 'brier-good', ok: 'brier-ok', poor: 'brier-poor'
};
function brierClass(s) { return s <= 0.12 ? 'brier-good' : s <= 0.20 ? 'brier-ok' : 'brier-poor'; }
function brierLabel(s) { return s <= 0.12 ? '● Excellent' : s <= 0.20 ? '◎ Good' : '△ Fair'; }

// ── RENDER SENTIMENT ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function renderSentiment() {
  const colors = ['fill-green','fill-blue','fill-gold'];
  document.getElementById('sentimentGrid').innerHTML = SENTIMENT.map((m,i) => `
    ${m.cat}
${m.q}

          YES ${m.yes}%
          NO ${100-m.yes}%
        

        ${m.vol} · ${m.forecasters} forecasters
        ${brierLabel(m.brier)} ${m.brier}
      

  `).join('');

  // Animate bars
  setTimeout(() => {
    document.querySelectorAll('.sc-fill').forEach(el => {
      el.style.width = el.dataset.w;
    });
  }, 100);
}

// ── RENDER ACCURACY TABLE ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function renderAccuracy() {
  document.getElementById('accuracyBody').innerHTML = RESOLVED.map(r => `
    
      ${r.q}
      ${r.cat}
      ${r.prob}
      ${r.outcome}
      ${r.lead}
      ${r.brier}
      ${r.fc}
    
  `).join('');
}

// ── CODE TABS ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
const CODE = {
  python: `# CheckRada Sentiment API — Pythonimport requests

API_KEY = "YOUR_API_KEY"
BASE    = "https://api.checkrada.co.ke/v1"defget_probability(market_id):
    resp = requests.get(
        f"{BASE}/markets/{market_id}/probability",
        headers={"Authorization": f"Bearer {API_KEY}"}
    )
    data = resp.json()
    # { yes_probability, brier_score, lead_time_hours, ... }return data

result = get_probability("kes-usd-130")
print(f"YES: {result['yes_probability']*100:.1f}%")
print(f"Brier: {result['brier_score']}")`,

  curl: `# CheckRada Sentiment API — cURL# Get current probability for a market
curl -X GET \\
  "https://api.checkrada.co.ke/v1/markets/kes-usd-130/probability" \\
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \\
  -H "Content-Type: application/json"# Response:# {#   "yes_probability": 0.54,#   "no_probability":  0.46,#   "brier_score":     0.11,#   "lead_time_hours": 3.5,#   "volume_kes":      612000,#   "forecasters":     441# }# List all active markets
curl -X GET \\
  "https://api.checkrada.co.ke/v1/markets?status=active" \\
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY"`,
};

function switchTab(btn, lang) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.code-tab').forEach(t => t.classList.remove('active'));
  btn.classList.add('active');
  if (CODE[lang]) document.getElementById('codeBody').innerHTML = CODE[lang];
}

function getApiKey(tier)     { alert(`${tier.toUpperCase()} API key request — connect to your backend to handle signups.`); }
function contactEnterprise() { alert('Enterprise sales form would open here.'); }
function exportCSV() { window.location='rada-data-signup.html?ref=export&plan=pro'; }
function viewFull() { window.location='rada-data-signup.html?ref=report&plan=pro'; }
function downloadSample()    { alert('Sample PDF report would download here.'); }

renderSentiment();
renderAccuracy();






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Kenya's Predictive Sentiment Signal.Actionable Intelligence. Ahead of the Curve.

Kenya's Predictive Sentiment Signal.
Actionable Intelligence. Ahead of the Curve.